Final Kentucky Derby 2025 Odds, Start Time + Updated Predictions
The 151st Kentucky Derby is just hours away, with the most exciting two minutes in sports set to captivate racing fans at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. As post time approaches, let’s break down everything you need to know about this year’s Run for the Roses, from the latest odds to expert predictions.
Race Details
Date: Saturday, May 3, 2025
Post Time: 6:57 p.m. ET
Location: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky
Purse: $5 million guaranteed
Distance: 1 1/4 miles
TV Coverage: USA Network (12-2:30 p.m. ET), NBC (2:30 p.m. ET – end)
Weather Forecast
Weather could be a major factor in today’s race. According to the latest forecast, there’s a high chance of rain throughout the afternoon, with conditions potentially clearing around post time. A wet track could significantly impact race strategy and performance, potentially giving an edge to horses with proven performance on sloppy conditions.
Current Odds
Here are the latest odds for the 2025 Kentucky Derby contenders:
| Horse | Current Odds |
|---|---|
| Journalism | 3-1 |
| Sovereignty | 5-1 |
| Sandman | 6-1 |
| American Promise | 8-1 |
| Burnham Square | 12-1 |
| Luxor Cafe | 15-1 |
| Admire Daytona | 30-1 |
| Publisher | 33-1 |
| (Other contenders with various odds) |
Note: Odds are subject to change up until post time
Top Contenders Analysis
Journalism (3-1)
The clear favorite enters the Derby on a four-race winning streak, including impressive victories in the Santa Anita Derby and San Felipe Stakes. Trained by Michael McCarthy, this bay colt has demonstrated excellent consistency. However, it’s worth noting that the favorite hasn’t won the Kentucky Derby in the last six years.
Sovereignty (5-1)
After finishing second in the Florida Derby, Sovereignty has attracted significant betting attention. The colt has shown impressive speed and stamina in prep races, positioning him as a serious challenger to Journalism.
Sandman (6-1)
Winner of the Arkansas Derby, Sandman enters with momentum. Trainer Mark Casse has indicated the horse is better suited for longer distances, which could play to his advantage in the 1 1/4 mile Kentucky Derby. However, some experts, including Jody Demling, are suggesting fading this horse despite the favorable odds.
Burnham Square (12-1)
At 12-1, Burnham Square presents intriguing value. Expert Gene Menez has highlighted this horse as one to watch, making him potentially the most interesting mid-range option in the field.
Luxor Cafe (15-1)
This Japanese-trained horse has won three stakes races in Japan to qualify for the Derby. Both horse and trainer are making their first starts outside Japan, adding an international element to this year’s race.
Expert Predictions
Several horse racing experts have weighed in with their predictions:
- Gene Menez, who correctly identified 18-1 longshot Mystik Dan as last year’s winner, is high on Burnham Square (12-1) while suggesting bettors fade Sandman despite his recent Arkansas Derby win.
- Jody Demling, who has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years, is also fading Sandman but has revealed his detailed win-place-show picks on SportsLine.
- Michelle Yu, who has correctly predicted several major races in 2025, including Journalism’s win in the San Felipe Stakes, has indicated she likes longshot Luxor Cafe at 15-1.
Historical Context
The Kentucky Derby represents the first leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown, followed by the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. Mystik Dan won last year’s Derby as an 18-1 longshot. It’s been six years since the morning-line favorite won the Kentucky Derby, making this an intriguing year as Journalism attempts to break that streak.
Post 5 has historically been the most successful starting position, producing 10 previous Derby winners.
Betting Tips
When placing your bets today, keep these factors in mind:
- Weather impact – With rain in the forecast, horses with experience on wet tracks may have an advantage
- Favorites struggle – The favorite has won just under 35% of races since 1908 and none in the last five years
- Post positions matter – Inside and far outside positions often face traffic challenges
- Recent form – Consider how horses performed in their final prep races
Whether you’re backing the favorite Journalism, looking for value with Burnham Square or Luxor Cafe, or have your eye on another contender, the 151st Kentucky Derby promises to deliver another thrilling chapter in horse racing history.
Remember to bet responsibly, and enjoy the most exciting two minutes in sports!
